Investigating the Impact of Future Climate Change Scenarios on Shallow Landslides and Debris Flows occurrence in Tehran-Karaj Basin

کد مقاله : 1007-NIEGC2025

نویسندگان

عاطفه حبیبی *، جعفر حسن پور، مصطفی کریمی دانشگاه تهران

چکیده مقاله

This study investigates the potential effects of climate change on the occurrence of shallow landslides and debris flows in the Tehran–Karaj watershed, Iran, using the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability (TRIGRS) model. Climate projections from the CMIP6 CNRM-CM6-1 model were applied under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) for the 2025–2050 period. Future rainfall parameters were derived for each scenario, with particular focus on intensity–duration patterns critical to slope stability. Geotechnical and hydrological properties, including soil depth, cohesion, internal friction angle, hydraulic conductivity, and groundwater depth, were obtained from field data and literature. The TRIGRS model was calibrated using the August 2022 Imamzadeh Davood debris flow event. Results show a general increase in rainfall intensity and frequency under all scenarios, with SSP5-8.5 exhibiting the largest changes. Model outputs indicate a significant increase in the number of unstable cells, reduced factors of safety, and greater spatial extent of shallow landslides under projected future climates. In particular, steep slopes (>45°) with shallow groundwater (<1 m) and volcanic tuff geology are most sensitive to increased pore-water pressures. The findings highlight the importance of integrating climate change projections into landslide hazard assessments and slope management strategies in mountainous infrastructure corridors such as the Chalous Road.

کلیدواژه ها

CLIMATE CHANGE, LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY, DEBRIS FLOW, TRIGRS MODEL, SLOPE STABILITY

وضعیت: پذیرفته شده برای ارسال فایل های ارائه پوستر